As we enter 2025, there is speculation that advancements in technology will result in greater productivity as well as waste companies managing more materials from more sources while diversifying their suite of management strategies.
Looking back on 2024, what are the significant changes you have seen over the past year in the waste and recycling industry?
Will Flower: Nationwide, we experienced high inflation in 2024. As a result, we saw cost of equipment, labor, transportation and disposal increase considerably. Haulers responded by raising consumer prices. Legislatively, we saw several states continuing to explore extended producer responsibility. At the same time, not enough states were looking at minimum content legislation to help bolster recycling markets. 2024 was also notable for robust activity of mergers and acquisitions.
David Biderman: I鈥檓 not sure I can point to a single 鈥渟ignificant鈥� change in the waste and recycling industry over the past year. Technology trends such as AI, vision tech in post-disposal, and EV trucks accelerated. Another state (Minnesota) enacted an Extender Producer Responsibility (EPR) law. There was a reasonably stable recycling market and the usual high number of acquisitions. Although time will tell, perhaps one of the most significant developments in 2024 may have been the National Waste & Recycling Association (NWRA) naming Michael Hoffman as its CEO. Michael knows the industry well from his days at Stifel and moderating the annual Investors鈥� Summit at Waste Expo. He is an excellent speaker and as knowledgeable as anyone about financial and operational issues affecting the industry.
Bryan Staley: In many ways, 2024 seemed like a year where there was a lot of activity, but much of this was ongoing from 2023. I didn鈥檛 feel like there was anything that was a major paradigm shift.
What kinds of concerns and challenges in the waste and recycling industry are happening currently and how can they be addressed? What other trends do you foresee causing a shift in dynamics?
WF: Inflation is still a concern as it drives up operational costs. Labor shortfalls are a concern, as there is stiff competition for employees, especially for mechanics and drivers with CDLs. Most companies have had to increase driver salaries and benefits to attract and retain employees. Many companies have rolled out aggressive and creative recruitment programs to find prospective employees.
Another concern that is going to get more attention in 2025 is the increasing use of radioactive medicines that is showing up in the household waste stream鈥攆requently from discarded diapers from patients using these radioactive drugs. Some isotopes used in medicine have half-lives that range from hours to days, while others may persist for longer periods.
Radiation detectors may set off an alarm at transfer stations, landfills, or waste-to-energy plants, resulting in a quarantine of the 鈥渉ot鈥� load. For isotopes with short half-lives, haulers will need to work with their regulatory agencies to develop a strategy for storing waste until it decays to a level considered non-hazardous. This requires dedicated storage spaces, additional monitoring, employee training, and an increase in paperwork to document monitoring results. Improper disposal of these radioactive wastes can result in environmental contamination and there is a need for better education of patients by their doctors regarding the proper disposal
Properly addressing these challenges requires collaboration among healthcare providers, waste management companies, regulatory agencies, and the public. This ensures that radioactive medical waste is managed safely, minimizing risks to people and the environment.
BS: Many of the ongoing things gained in prominence/importance, such as:
鈥� Landfill emissions鈥攃hanges in policy and continued strong interest in direct measurement. Continued work to evaluate the accuracy of technologies and developing frameworks that can estimate emissions while measurement technologies mature is critical for the coming year.
鈥� MRF Fires/Lithium-Ion Batteries鈥攃ontinuing focus on how we can better educate consumers to properly dispose of batteries and enhance detection and mitigation strategies for fires at MRFs 鈥� but also on trucks and at landfills. Improving education is critical as li-ion battery production continues to grow.
鈥� EPR鈥攖his continues to evolve and advance as a panacea for resolving all things related to recycling and circularity, yet we don鈥檛 really know how well it works and how it should be measured in a standardized way.
鈥� PFAS鈥攎uch of the solid waste conversation around PFAS has been related to the potential impact of CERCLA on the solid waste field and treating PFAS in leachate. However, there were key developments on the scientific front that showed PFAS is also in landfill gas. The solid waste field could benefit from a clearer understanding of how much PFAS actually goes into solid waste facilities, how much comes out, and what mechanisms can be used to manage PFAS that does exit facilities in stormwater runoff, leachate, and in the air.
鈥� Alternative Fueled Fleets鈥擡/V was the rage entering 2024, but what went in like a lion seemed to go out like a lamb as conversations emerged around the efficacy of E/V in a variety of situations (e.g. during disasters where the power grid is down and charging occurs off of diesel burning generators) while the conversation around the potential of hydrogen-fueled fleets heated up.
DB: It remains difficult to attract and retain workers, particularly as drivers or mechanics. Employers are continuing to increase salaries and using innovative recruitment methods to get more applications. The perception of the industry as 鈥渄irty鈥� remains an obstacle. The high frequency of fires at transfer stations and recycling facilities is an ongoing concern.
Smaller haulers are facing an increasingly difficult disposal pricing environment in some markets. Due to the large number of acquisitions over the past several decades, the majority of the landfill airspace in the U.S. is owned by a handful of companies, and landfill tip fees continue to increase.
All solid waste companies and municipal sanitation agencies should be concerned about the federal government鈥檚 recent occupational safety report identifying waste collection workers as having the 4th highest fatality rate in the U.S. Keeping frontline workers safe, particularly in collection, and preventing injuries and collisions, continues to be a major challenge at most solid waste companies and municipal sanitation departments.
We have seen a transition to RNG/CNG, electric and now hydrogen trucks have begun to come into the picture. What are your thoughts on where refuse
vehicles are headed?
Sean Jennings: I hope that the pendulum of a politically charged push for certain types of equipment has reached its peak, and we can move towards a decision-making basis on facts. We have seen certain municipalities in the Southeast that pushed electric trucks and after many years found out that it was not going to be possible or financially responsible. There are more changes coming to refuse equipment and, as always, the industry will adjust!
WF: The trend toward the broader use of alternative fuels will continue in 2025 and beyond. Currently, there are about 160,000 refuse trucks operating in the U.S.鈥攖he majority of which are still diesel powered. Over time, we will see continued progress and advancements in electric vehicles, natural gas-powered vehicles, and even hydrogen powered vehicles.
DB: I expect the gradual incorporation of electric trucks (EVs) to continue in 2025 and beyond, particularly in those states that provide funding to subsidize the purchase of these more expensive waste collection vehicles.
BS: Ultimately, E/V has limitations on many fronts 鈥� limited range, which impacts use in more rural markets, heavier so more wear/tear on road infrastructure, use of a limited resource (lithium) compared to a more plentiful resource (hydrogen). External trends have the potential to impact this as well since substantial power demand has materialized for data centers, which may shift the dynamics related to the implementation of E/V and increased natural disasters such as hurricanes and fires, in which many cases the power grid goes down and E/V vehicles are then reliant on fossil-fueled generators to charge. That said, there is still a likely place for E/V vehicles in fleets, but while many recognized from the start that E/V worked well in some situations, it was not an all-around option for replacement of the entire fleet. Recent events and maturity of E/V have highlighted the limitations of their use currently (with the understanding that with more advancement, some of these limitations may be addressed).
As waste management and recycling has continued to evolve, many organizations have transitioned to calling it resource management, what does this mean to you and do you think it will continue to trend in this direction?
WF: Various components of the waste stream have always been a resource. Metals, including tin and aluminum cans, are some of the more common materials that can be recovered and recycled. Critical to the success of any resource recovery system is the need for viable markets for the materials that we wish to recycle or reuse. Minimum content legislation to advance the demand for recycled materials would be most helpful in creating the needed markets for the materials we can sort and separate from the waste stream.
DB: There has definitely been an increase in buzzwords like 鈥渞esource management鈥�, but it doesn鈥檛 change the fundamental issue that a discarded item is a resource only if someone is willing to pay for it. I think there will continue to be changes in how we describe the waste and recycling sector as we seek to attract new employees and improve the perception of the industry.
BS: If one considers the concept of circularity, it should be recognized that circularity is only possible when waste that is generated becomes a resource to be used again. This makes waste management the critical element that allows circularity to happen. I do believe this trend will continue; the public is more tuned into circularity and sustainability than they ever have been and are demanding solutions. This represents a tremendous opportunity for the waste management industry to position itself as part of the solution.
SJ: As the waste and recycling industry grows and there is more interest from those outside of the industry, we will get fresh takes on the business. However, I believe that the term resource management simply implies more recycling and more landfill diversion.
AI was a major buzzword in 2024; do you think the industry has begun to implement more ways to use it as a tool across the business?
DB: AI is being used in an increasing number of applications including collection, recycling, maintenance, and risk management. I expect we will see additional use cases for AI as a tool for waste management managers and supervisors in 2025.
SJ: Yes, I believe that AI will be used for simpler administrative tasks to save time, but hopefully it will translate into ways to improve safety performance through better coaching tools.
WF: AI has been in use for several years and we are seeing it increase productivity and profitability. Recycling centers are just one place where AI technologies are revolutionizing the recycling processes. Today鈥檚 processing equipment like robotics and optical sorting use AI systems equipped with cameras and sensors that can identify and sort materials with greater precision than manual sorting. Many of these systems use image recognition to detect contaminants and separate recyclable materials, reducing contamination in recycling streams. More advanced systems have 鈥渓earning鈥� capabilities to adapt to different waste compositions, improving accuracy of the sorting process.
We also see AI being used for route optimization in which algorithms determine the most efficient routes for garbage trucks, reducing fuel consumption, and operational costs. Some haulers have employed AI data analysis in which images from the camera systems on a collection vehicle is used to monitor and bill for overloaded containers.
While the integration of AI is already making an impact, there are challenges that remain, including the high upfront costs for AI technology and the need for skilled personnel to select, implement, manage, and interpret AI systems.
BS: Yes, in safety on the collection side and in recycling on the sorting side for sure. There is tremendous opportunity to use AI not just in operations, but also in the back office to streamline and create efficiencies around communications, marketing, workflow, and management.
As the older generation has begun retiring out of the industry, how important is it to use the right recruitment strategies to attract younger people?
WF: Companies are spending a lot more time and resources recruiting. Demographic data for the U.S. indicates many industries, including waste and recycling, are going to experience labor shortages for several years. There is stiff competition for employees, especially for drivers with CDLs. Additionally, many companies and municipalities have increased driver salaries and benefits to attract and retain employees. I also cannot stress enough the importance of retaining good employees. As managers, supervisors, and HR professionals, we need to focus on creating a great place to work where all employees are appreciated, trusted, and feel safe.
SJ: Flexible work schedules, lower hours, more automation, overall quality work environment, quality leadership, and a clear path for career advancement are high on the list for the younger generation, but many of those are not new compared to past generations鈥� wants. Many companies are dealing with the labor shortage by creating their own talent through internal vocational programs.
Waste Pro has the three programs to help counter recruiting challenges. They are Co-Heart program, Technician certifications, and our Technician Apprenticeship program. The Co-Heart program is our DOT certified testing center where anyone who has interest in getting a CDL can go through the week-long program and receive a CDL. The graduates receive their CDL for free if they can go a year in good standing. We have trained and certified over 500 drivers. For technicians, we incentivize further training through pay increases with each ASE certification. Also, for technicians, we offer an apprenticeship program where we partner with technical institutes to train future technicians. Students are given a toolbox and tools and receive additional tools over time and once they convert to a full time Waste Pro technician, they are given the toolbox. For technicians, we also offer tool allowances that increase with years of service.
Waste Pro also partners with Florida Department of Corrections and we are able to begin interviewing and go through other parts of the hiring process while individuals are still incarcerated. To help with retention, we also offer three-year safety awards for drivers and helpers in the amount of $10k and $5k. We have awarded 900 employees totaling to $8.6 million.
DB: Many industries, including the solid waste industry, are seeing a lot of retirements by industry veterans. It is essential to attract and retain high-performing personnel both to replace them and bring new ideas into the industry. In addition, recruiting young people to all levels in the industry remains a constant battle. I have seen employers be effective through a combination of competitive salaries and a path towards promotions. We should also be reminding prospective employees that the waste and recycling industry provides an opportunity to 鈥渄o well鈥� and 鈥渄o good鈥� at the same time, while working in a sector that can鈥檛 be outsourced overseas and is in high demand throughout the U.S.
BS: Younger people want to believe in the mission of where they work and get behind it, but are also willing to make sacrifices to have a work-life balance. While for many older workers, the job and loyalty to the company was core value, many younger workers are more focused on creating situation for themselves that allow them flexibility. While in many cases a 鈥榬eturn to the office鈥� has been noted, many younger workers expect a flexible work environment that allows them some degree of remote work and flexibility. Nonetheless, attracting talent to the waste industry has challenges simply in the 鈥榗urb appeal鈥� versus other fields. It has been encouraging to see a substantial increase in the number of women in a historically male dominated industry.
Do you think that we will see a lot of activity in the area of mergers and acquisitions in 2025?
SJ: There will be neverending M&A activity. As the national public companies consolidate, they struggle to maintain a high level of customer service and ability to react to local market changes, in comparison to a local owner operator. As consolidation continues and the broader investment community observes favorable returns in the waste and recycling space, there will be more investment interest in the industry. Those two facts will always create the room for new entrants, or old entrants as non competes run out! The industry is still extremely fragmented and 2025 will be a busy year for M&A.
WF: Yes. The waste industry is noted for its steady and predictable free cash flow. That cash can be used in a number of ways. It can be used to reduce debt, it can be returned to investors and owners in the form of a dividend, it can be invested as capital for expansion projects, or it can be used to buy back company stock. Stock prices are high and therefore, I believe that the strong and healthy companies are going to reinvest their cash in growth through acquisitions.
DB: I expect a continuation of the steady stream of acquisitions in 2025. There continue to be a lot of smaller haulers whose owners are interested in exiting the business, for the right price. High interest rates make it difficult for some smaller companies to compete with the national or big regional companies. The incoming Trump Administration will likely have a benign view of the antitrust laws which may lead to deals that would have been off the table decades ago.
What do you think regulations will look like in 2025? What are some industry initiatives to keep an eye on?
WF: In 2025, the waste and recycling industry will be influenced by a combination of new state-level regulations and potential federal policy shifts. Prior to the national election, the industry was poised to experience significant changes due to evolving federal regulations on landfill emission standards and waste incinerators. As President Trump assumes office, there is an anticipated shift in federal environmental policies as the new administration has indicated plans to roll back certain environmental regulations, which could affect the waste and recycling industry. The industry will need to closely monitor these developments to effectively adapt to the changing regulatory environment.
States are still actively pursuing a vast array of laws, rules, and regulations, so expect to continue to see legislation focused on extended producer responsibility, battery safety, minimum content legislation on consumer goods, and packaging. We need to be ever mindful of state actions, such as New York, where a garbage tax is being discussed under the guise of a 鈥渄isposal disincentive fee.鈥�
BS: The new presidential administration will be less inclined to increase regulation so we may see some easing or slowing on federal regulations. However, this may not impact state regulatory initiatives. An increased focus on oil drilling may reduce demand for alternative fuels such as landfill gas to energy and if so, then renewable energy credits may be depressed for the foreseeable future. EPR and PFAS related policies will likely continue to evolve.
DB: On the federal level, I expect there to be very little new regulatory activity, and would not be surprised if many of the Biden Administration鈥檚 environmental and clean energy initiatives are rolled back. For example, EPA has designated PFAS as a hazardous substance under the Superfund law, creating potential liability for landfills that discharge leachate to wastewater treatment facilities. I am certain the Trump Administration will take a hard look at that recently enacted regulation, which has been challenged in federal court. Similarly, federal efforts to reduce methane emissions from various sources, including landfills, will likely be low priorities for the EPA.
There will likely be substantial efforts to obtain favorable changes in the tax laws, as a tax bill is among the Trump Administration鈥檚 top priorities. The industry will seek to repeal the excise tax on trucks and expand tax preferences for certain investments, including bonus depreciation.
Because new federal environmental legislation or regulation protecting the environment is highly unlikely over the next four years, there will be increased interest in enacting new protections at the state level. This may include rules reducing greenhouse gas emissions and environmental justice.
The coming year will be when regulations implementing the new EPR programs are finalized in several states (Maine, California, Colorado, Oregon), and other states are expected to consider EPR this year, including conducting needs assessments or other studies (e.g., Maryland).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released the 2023 National Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries and unfortunately, the waste industry has jumped to #4 on the list of most dangerous jobs. What steps can the industry take to improve its placement?
WF: The news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was disappointing. As an industry, I felt we were making steady progress over the past 10 years to improve our industry鈥檚 safety record. In 2024 we moved from the 7th most dangerous industry to the 4th most dangerous. This set back mandates that we get back to the basics and commitment to developing a culture of safety across the entire industry. Public and private companies, municipalities and associations like NWRA and SWANA need to double down on industry-wide safety initiatives.
SJ: This should be the most important point of discussion for the industry. Companies must create their own talent through internal vocational programs and extra training; we also have to do a better job in instilling safe habits. There is little that we can do about the many other distracted drivers on the road, but we must find a way to get cell phones out of truck cabs. At Waste Pro, we have standardized our cell phone policy and are using AI through the in-cab cameras to identify cell phone usage. The expectation is to pull over if the driver must use a cell phone, and using a cell phone while driving can lead to termination.
BS: EREF is currently undertaking a study to evaluate the cause a frequency of fatalities in the industry, with the hope to find some commonalities that contribute to injuries/death. Nonetheless, ensuring the numbers that are cited are as accurate as possible are also a focus, since early efforts on the project showed that some of the data do not agree.
DB: For several decades, industry leaders have opined that eliminating rear loaders, buying small companies, and the new technologies being used in the trucks would get solid waste collection workers off the BLS 鈥渢op 10鈥� list. It鈥檚 clear that this is not the case. We are going in the wrong direction on both a comparative and absolute basis, and we should not be blaming distracted drivers for the nearly weekly worker fatalities that the industry continues to experience.
Waste Advantage is playing a leadership role by hosting a Safety Summit on March 20th, and I鈥檓 thrilled to participate in that event. The Summit will bring together waste companies, local governments, suppliers, and technology providers. The major associations will be invited to speak, as well as others to discuss how we can improve our industry鈥檚 safety performance. The Summit will be free, and I hope that more events like this occur. More of the same is definitely not acceptable.
What do you think that 2025 will hold for the industry?
DB: In addition to a substantial amount of M&A activity, the industry鈥檚 fortunes are tied in large measure to the economy. If the economy continues to do well, there will plenty of waste and recyclables for everyone, and companies will be willing to make capital investments in new trucks, facilities, and systems. If the Trump Administration deports a lot of illegal immigrants, it will put renewed upward pressure on wages in blue collar jobs, such as waste and recycling. Some companies in the industry likely prefer comprehensive immigration reform that attracts more people into the workforce, especially as drivers or mechanics.
WF: Headwinds in 2025 include high mortgage rates, which could limit home sales and housing starts. New home construction and home renovations projects are big drivers for roll-off services. Additionally, the management of batteries and the threat of fires in trucks, recycling centers, and other solid waste facilities will continue to be a problem in 2025.
However, I am predicting another great year ahead. Our business grows with population growth and business formation. Entering 2025, the economy is strong. Recycling can be a bright spot in 2025 as there is support for growing the circular economy. Additionally, advancements in recycling technology should result in greater productivity. We also expect that composting programs and local organic waste management will gain traction as solid waste managers focus on food waste and organics in the waste stream.
BS: We did see some shifts toward more broad integration of waste streams being managed by waste companies, with both WM and Republic getting more strongly involved in hazardous and medical waste. I believe 2025 will see an increased broadening of waste companies managing more materials from more sources and diversifying their suite of management strategies to position themselves to offer more solutions and, hence, the ability to offer enhanced ways to transform waste into a resource.
THANK YOU TO OUR EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD PARTICIPANTS!
David Biderman
is the President of Biderman Consulting, LLC in Fairfax, VA, and the former Executive Director of SWANA.
He can be reached at [email protected].
Will Flower
is a Solid Waste and Recycling Consultant with more than 40 years of experience.
He can be reached at [email protected]
Sean Jennings
is President and CEO of Waste Pro.
He can be reached [email protected].
Dr. Bryan Staley
is President and CEO of the Environmental Research & Educational Foundation.
He can be reached at [email protected].